Research of Moscow labor market: the end of panic among job seekers

Difficulties in economy, adverse investment climate and currencies rate fluctuations had a storng impact on the labor market. Labor demand was chaotic: steady periods were replaced by rises and recessions, employers salary proposals fluctuated and expectations of job seekers decreased. At the same time requirements to job seekers raised: most of employers relied not on quantity, but on efficiency of manpower.

As a result of the decrease which took place in the first quarter of 2015 the unemployed rate in Moscow increased approximately by 20% following the results of a year while in Russia this parameter made about 10%. Job seekers began to mark difficulties with job search: time of new place search increased from 1-3 months to half a year and more, the level of the competition for vacant positions increased from 6,5 to 10 applications per one vacancy. Offer dynamics on the labor market was negative: the number of urgent vacancies decreased during 2015.

The main problem for the minor executives in Moscow was inflation: the actual dispocable incomes of the population in Moscow decreased by 2% compared to 2014 (in 2014 – by 7,9%). Many companies refused standard wages indexation for benefit of the differentiated approach, i.e. compensation depending on amounts of the work done: as a result real salary level of more effective employees even increased.

In 2015 workers of the sales sphere felt the most comfortable on the labor market of Moscow: in offer structure 37% of all vacancies belonged to this branch. At the same time the competition remained rather low – 3,1 applications per vacancy. Spheres of information technologies, medicine, consultation and partially – PR and marketing were also steady against the crisis. In these industries demand for specialists remained rather stable even in February-March, 2015 which were the most difficult for the labor market.

The adverse situation for workers in the sphere of automotive industry and raw materials production was also marked. In these industries labor demand within a year decreased more than twice. The highest competition remained in the sphere of public service and among TOP management – 28 and 22 applications per vacancy respectively.

However in 2016 the situation on the labor market began stabiliz, mass panic among job seekers in Moscow stopped: in the first quarter the surplus of active summaries number made 17% compared to the same period of last year, and in the second quarter the similar parameter made about 11%. For comparison, in 2015 the average surplus of summaries number made about 30%.

On the one hand, such a low surplus is explained by effect of low comparison base as the first half of 2015 became the most difficult period for job seekers. Then workers began to place summaries in large quantities to estimate their demand on the market and to understand whether they will be able to find job in case of dismissal. On the other hand, the situation on the labor market began to improve from fall of 2015. If in spring of 2015 employers postponed employment of new workers until the best times, then since September they began to hire employees again. As a result many of those who were dismissed found a new place of employment. Thus, most of the job seekers who are in job search at the moment do it consciously, but not to estimate the chances on the labor market.

Demand dynamics improvement is also observed: the number of vacancies began to increase since the beginning of 2016, and in June their quantity increased by 11% compared to May (or by 31% compared to June of last year) and reached the pre-crisis level of August, 2014. Following the results of the first half of the year in Moscow 17% more vacancies were placed, than in the same period of 2015.

In general, it is possible to mark that all professional areas on the Moscow labor market began to recover gradually from crisis. The best dynamics on the market is shown by consultation: the amount of vacancies in this sphere was almost twice more, than in the second half of 2015. Information technologies continue to remain the driving force on the labor market because of the business going online the manpower in this industry will be demanded for a very long time. In the second quarter of 2016 the surplus of applications number in IT made 36%, and the share of this professional sphere in the demand structure increased from 14% to 17%.

Gradually the competition among job seekers begins to decrease: in June it reduced to 8 applications per vacancy against 10 following the results of 2015. At the same time the highest competition remains in the public sector (30 people per vacancy) and among Top managers (24), in raw materials production (15). On the contrary, specialists in the field of consultation (1,3 applications per vacancy), sales (3,9), medicine (3,9) remain the most scarce.

Experts believe that the situation on the Moscow labor market until the end of 2016 will remain at least stable. Gradual increase of demand for specialists, especially in association with traditional employers activization on the market during this period is expected in the fall. Competition level will decrease gradually to the pre-crisis level. At the same time in case of candidate choice employers will give preference to more experienced and effective specialists who will bring the greatest benefit to business therefore it will be hard for young specialists to start the career.