Overview of the Russian security market: the continuing stagnation in the international isolation conditions
In 2009-2013 the security market of Russia developed quite dynamically. However from the middle of 2014 due to the change of geopolitical situation and sanctions imposition from the USA and the countries of Europe, and also oil reduction in cost, recession of financial turnovers began on the Russian stock market. In 2015 the situation on the market worsened. In the conditions of the international isolation and in the observed positive shifts absence professional participants of steel market were less active, and the Russian security market passed into the stagnation mode.
The total amount of stock market transactions following the results of 2015 reduced by 4,1% to 195,5 trillion rub. At the same time the trend of professional security market participants number decrease amplified – their quantity decreased by 26% to 812 companies. If 1 granted license of brokers, dealers or trustees in Moscow and regions was issued then 14 and 32 licenses were cancelled respectively.
In conditions of central government budget deficit the government bond market growth continued amount of which following the results of 2015 made 5,6 trillion rubles that is 19% higher than the parameter of 2014. However the amount of the state bonds secondary market reduced by 7% to 3,6 trillion rub. At the same time the sub-federal and municipal bonds market continues to remain the most unattractive and illiquid sector of the domestic debt market, the amount of these bonds release made a little more than 500 billion rubles.
Capitalization of the Russian bonds issuers increased by 24% to 28,2 trillion rub and made 47% of the country's GDP that was 11 items higher than in 2014. At the same time the disproportion in structure of the companies whose shares are traded on the market remains: 62% of all amount of capitalization belonged to the share of 10 largest joint-stock companies that is 1% higher than the level of the previous year. The amount of transactions with bonds on the secondary market almost didn't change.
Resource base for the organized market of shares are opened (or public) joint-stock companies the number of which though in 2015 reduced by 18%, but still continues to remain at the high level – about 24,8 thousand companies. However their number is very small of the commodity exchange. For example, on the domestic market of commodity following the results of 2015 the number of issuers decreased to 251 companies that was approximately 20% lower the parameter of 2011. At the same time the number of issuers decreased from 260 to 234 whose shares and bonds are included in quoted lists that is connected with requirements toughening to securities listing. At the same time primary public placements of securities of the companies at the commodity exchange in Russia have an incidental character: in 2015 4 Russian companies entered the IPO as a result they managed to attract 29,2 billion rubles in total.
As for private investors at the Moscow commodity exchange, their number increased by 8% to 982 thousand people during 2015, and the number of active private investors who make at least one transaction a month increased by 26% to 78,8 thousand persons. Such an inflow is connected with bigger appeal of the exchange during crisis for fans of risk, persons interested to earn at the expense of an unstable situation and unpredictability of securities rate fluctuations. Shares still remain the most attractive tool for private investors, however the increasing interest is shown also to other types of securities, in particular with the fixed profitability. So, the share of physical persons in commodity transactions cost amount almost didn't change and constituted 38%, and in volume of transactions with other securities increased by 4 % to 13%. At the same time corporate investors reduced the activity on the market: the number of active corporate investors in 2015 reached the minimum and made 1,3 thousand companies.
In collective investments segment the number of the mutual investment funds (MIF) decreased slightly and made 1549 following the results of 2015 total net assets value of which made 2,3 trillion rub. Despite negative results of 2014, amount of cash inflow to open-end funds which are focused on work with retail investors constituted 3 billion rubles in 2015. The bond funds focused on the foreign markets, and also industry fonds of stocks were most successful. At the same time high resources concentration is characteristic of the collective investments market: TOP-10 managing companies have 86% of the market size.
Experts estimate positively the prospects of the Russian stock market development in 2016. The positive shift is predicted in connection with the expected stabilization on the oil market, strengthening of the national currency rate, and also possible improvement of geopolitical situation. The first positive results can be observed now. For example, following the results of the first half of 2016 the total amount of the biddings on Moscow stock commodity exchange market increased by 13% compared to the same period of 2015. Market capitalization of the companies at the same time increased to 31,7 trillion rub that is 12% higher than the parameter following the results of 2015. The greatest surplus was shown by shares of the companies occupied in the sphere of mining and power industry.